android:smartdirt:smartdirt_1.0_summary
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android:smartdirt:smartdirt_1.0_summary [2012/04/10 18:33] mjallison |
android:smartdirt:smartdirt_1.0_summary [2012/10/10 07:13] (current) |
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| NOTE: Story zero was thrown out of the data calculations because it was so short and wasn't technically similar to the other stories. The artificially high velocities skews the average and median values to higher than actual. | NOTE: Story zero was thrown out of the data calculations because it was so short and wasn't technically similar to the other stories. The artificially high velocities skews the average and median values to higher than actual. | ||
| + | Because of the small number of stories, median velocity values are significantly higher than measured project velocity or average. I (mja) believe a more reasonable velocity value is somewhere between the average and median values. | ||
| **How to apply.** | **How to apply.** | ||
| - | For future projects planning can use these numbers to calculate more likely end dates and durations on a story by story basis or the entire project. For example suppose a story is estimating 37 ideal days, using the average EV, we can compute probable duration = 37 / EVa = 42. This tells us the engineers are probably going to "run over" by 5 days on the original estimate for the story. Using the average CV we see an end date of 37 / 0.82 = 45.1 or probably 46 days in the future. | + | For future projects planning can use these numbers to calculate more likely end dates and durations on a story by story basis or the entire project. Use average velocity values to apply to individual stories, while the total velocity (CVt) should be applied to the entire project. |
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| + | Example 1: Suppose a story is estimating 37 ideal days, using the average EV, we can compute probable duration = 37 / EVa = 42. This tells us the engineers are probably going to "run over" by 5 days on the original estimate for the story. Using the average CV we see an end date of 37 / 0.82 = 45.1 or probably 46 days in the future. | ||
| Example 2: SmartDirt stories total to 257 ideal days, slightly more than one work year. With two engineers we'd expect it to be done in about 6 months, which didn't happen. A more likely date would be 257 / CVa = 313 days. In fact the actual end of SmartDirt ended up being 410 days, almost 3 months shy of this prediction. This is where we apply CVt. 257 / 0.63 = 407. | Example 2: SmartDirt stories total to 257 ideal days, slightly more than one work year. With two engineers we'd expect it to be done in about 6 months, which didn't happen. A more likely date would be 257 / CVa = 313 days. In fact the actual end of SmartDirt ended up being 410 days, almost 3 months shy of this prediction. This is where we apply CVt. 257 / 0.63 = 407. | ||
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| * Borrowing (poaching) engineers for other effort - Will invalidate Median V numbers. | * Borrowing (poaching) engineers for other effort - Will invalidate Median V numbers. | ||
| * The small number of stories mean that the median values aren't in any sense typical. | * The small number of stories mean that the median values aren't in any sense typical. | ||
| + | * Individual velocities have not been measured. | ||
| **Recommendations** | **Recommendations** | ||
| * The current velocity numbers should be used to compute more likely dates for communication to management or internally to decide if specific work can be done within a specified time frame. | * The current velocity numbers should be used to compute more likely dates for communication to management or internally to decide if specific work can be done within a specified time frame. | ||
| * Future projects should continue to measure velocity and in particular add to the data so median calculations are more statistically reliable. | * Future projects should continue to measure velocity and in particular add to the data so median calculations are more statistically reliable. | ||
| + | * Engineers should not apply velocity to their initial estimates and continue to estimate in "ideal days". | ||
| * Engineers need to do a better job of marking accurate actual dates. | * Engineers need to do a better job of marking accurate actual dates. | ||
| * Engineers need to do a better job of closing tasks (several tasks in story 6 are still "open"). | * Engineers need to do a better job of closing tasks (several tasks in story 6 are still "open"). | ||
android/smartdirt/smartdirt_1.0_summary.1334082838.txt.gz · Last modified: 2012/10/10 17:18 (external edit)
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